The export outlook of those spices seems constructive for the approaching months, and the height provide interval is getting over for Jeera and Dhaniya

Spices had appreciated considerably within the first week of April and new highs had been noticed in Jeera in addition to Dhaniya. The tight provide and regular demand state of affairs supported the futures costs, particularly within the case of Jeera and Dhaniya. For the identical time, interval turmeric was supported by recent shopping for curiosity amongst stockists since costs had turned fairly cheaper in the course of the later days of March. As the brand new season arrival tempo improved after the primary week, the commodity had given again the positive factors.

Jeera at NCDEX had established a excessive of 23495 in the course of the earlier week earlier than present process a 1000-point correction. Fresh shopping for curiosity emerged after the correction, and the futures had been profitable in making a good restoration. According to the second advance estimate by Gujarat state agriculture division, jeera manufacturing is seen declining to 236980 tons in 2021-22, down 41 p.c 12 months on 12 months. India’s export prospects have improved for this 12 months because the provides are restricted in Turkey and Syria, which compete with India within the exports market.

Turmeric costs have jumped to a 7-week excessive, final to final week. Presently the costs are almost 15 p.c increased when in comparison with final 12 months. As per the Government’s first advance estimate, the manufacturing for the 2021/22 season is pegged at 11.76 lakh tonnes in 2021-22 towards 11.24 lt in 2020-21. The knowledge additionally conveys that turmeric exports in Jan 2022 are down by 25% month-on-month at 10,600 tonnes versus 14275 tonnes in December 2021. Exports within the month of February 2022 had been 10400, decrease by 17% versus final February month’s exports of 12,575 tonnes, For FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb), exports had fallen by 20% at 1.37 lakh tons in comparison with final 12 months. However, the numbers are nonetheless above the 5-year common by 8.3%.

Dhaniya futures (May) slipped after making a brand new excessive of 13298 within the first week of April. There has been a average restoration in the course of the not too long ago ended week. Prices have doubled 12 months on 12 months, and up 39.8% since January 2022.

Steady exports and decrease crop estimates have supported the markets. Coriander or Dhaniya exports in Feb 2022 are up 5.5% y/y at 3320 tonnes in comparison with 3150 tonnes final 12 months as per the Government launch. For FY 2021/22 (Apr-Feb) the exports are decrease by 13.7% at 44,450 tonnes versus 51.5 thousand tonnes final 12 months. The numbers are nonetheless 11% increased in comparison with the 5-year common.

Price Outlook:

The Ramadan season demand will likely be supportive for the spices market within the forthcoming weeks. The export outlook of those spices seems constructive for the approaching months, and the height provide interval is getting over for Jeera and Dhaniya. For turmeric, the arrival tempo from the South will lower now, however the numbers shall improve from Maharashtra, and can proceed for the following 2-3 months no less than. Therefore turmeric arrivals shall proceed at a good tempo until July. All in all, the worth pattern stays up for spices however positive factors in Dhaniya and Jeera will likely be extra distinguished than turmeric, going ahead. However, rising costs are prompting the patrons to attend for additional worth reductions. The provide tempo remains to be increased in all of the spices which is one other consider patrons ready for higher presents. Therefore costs could also be beneath stress within the brief run and begin appreciating after a couple of weeks.

Near Term Technical Overview of Turmeric, Jeera & Dhaniya

Jeera: The benchmark contract has been making new highs month on month and we get bullish indicators from the directional indicators. Prices have bounced again this month after establishing the excessive 23240, however patrons had been stepping at each dip. May Jeera is comfortably positioned above the higher Bollinger band area, thus making the situation strongly bullish.

But the brief time period has turned barely bearish subsequently we count on the upward pattern to be capped for the following few weeks no less than. For the remaining a part of April, we count on May Jeera to the touch 23200 if it holds above 22500 on a closing foundation. However, in case of closing under 21700, there could be a downward transfer in the direction of 21150-21200.

Turmeric: The May contract is dealing with resistance in holding above the 9850-9950 mark for the previous few weeks. As indicated by the month-to-month indicators, the medium-term indicators are barely weak, but the broader view stays bullish. Currently, the contract trades close to the 9280 degree. As lengthy because it closes under this worth, the tendency to maneuver decrease in the direction of 8650/8300 will likely be excessive. On the opposite hand, sturdy resistance for the month of April will likely be 9800-9850.

Dhaniya: The May contract had slipped after making a brand new excessive of 13298 within the first week of April and there had been some pullbacks thereafter. Like Jeera the broader view is bullish and shifting ahead we count on new highs on this counter as properly. The May contract for the following few days shall commerce with a constructive bias with a powerful help area mendacity 12000-12080. As lengthy as costs are closing above 12000, the contract can re-test the 12940-13000 resistances. In case this degree is breached comfortably, the following resistance will likely be 13550.



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